Art and Science of Decision Making

Common-sense rules and decision-making tools to achieve clarity of action for important decisions, from personal choices to organizational decisions about business strategies and public policies. The art of qualitative framing and structuring as well as the science of quantitative modeling and analysis. The essential focus, discipline, and passion needed to make high-quality decisions, and thereby increase the probability of desired outcomes. Effective normative techniques and efficient management processes for both analyzing complex decisions and implementing them in the face of an uncertain future world. Lecture topics include practical ways to: interact collaboratively with stakeholders, craft an inspirational vision, create viable alternatives, assess unbiased probabilistic information, clarify tangible and intangible preferences, develop appropriate risk/reward and portfolio models, evaluate strategies and policies across a realistic range of uncertain scenarios, analyze key sensitivities, appraise the value of gathering additional information, and build widespread commitment to implementation plans. Student teams present insights from their analyses of real decisions currently being made by business, nonprofit, and government organizations. Case studies about: energy economics, mine remediation, ocean resource preservation, bison brucellosis, nuclear waste storage, hurricane seeding, electric power production, environmental risk management, venture capital investments, and oil & gas options trading.